There is, at present, no way to predict reliably the risk of falling ill or dying soon.
However, identifying early and reliably persons apparently healthy but are actually fragile would be a way to target individuals for whom prevention activities would be useful.
Identification of four blood biomarkers that predict mortality risk.
A team of researchers measured blood levels of a hundred biomarkers using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.
Their analysis was based on plasma samples from a Estonian biobank collected nearly 10,000 people.
They examined data from parallel health of this group, and found that 508 people had died during follow-up of 5 years, for the majority of cardiovascular disease, cancer or other pathologies.
For statistical analysis, they examined whether there were links between blood concentrations of different biomarkers and the risk of death in the short term they discovered that four biomarkers that predicted risk so remarkably accurate.
They repeated the experiment over 7500 plasma samples from a Finnish biobank and obtained the same results.
They then continued their work by performing statistical analyzes taking into account other known risk factors for their impact on health: age, weight, smoking and alcohol consumption, the cholesterol and the pre- existence of disease.
Again, the link between the four biomarkers and the risk of death in the short term has been verified.
Risk of death up to 19 times.
The four biomarkers are involved in various pathophysiological mechanisms including inflammation, moisture imbalance, lipoprotein metabolism or metabolic homeostasis.
But its functional role is still poorly understood.
Nevertheless, the results of the study support the hypothesis that acute phase protein reflects the risk of death from vascular disease or non- vascular and cancer – albumin is a marker of kidney and liver function, nutritional status and inflammation.
Low serum albumin is associated with increased all-cause mortality, both among people apparently healthy individuals and in patients.
Its dosage is rarely performed in people who have no symptoms.
Triglycerides from lipoprotein metabolism are recognized as risk factors for cardiovascular disease, especially outside the phases of fasting.
According to the study, the size of VLDL is inversely proportional to the risk of death, and this association is even stronger when the α 1- acid glycoprotein is also taken account.
This may indicate a combination of triglyceride metabolism and inflammation, the researchers suggest – Finally, the citrate is in the central energy metabolism.
The increase in blood concentration is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality risk, but especially mortality for another reason.
The underlying mechanisms remain unknown, however,.
But it is especially when they are combined into a score as the ability of these four biomarkers to predict the risk of death at 5 years proved to be the most remarkable : those located in the red zone and had a risk of dying in the next 5 years 19 times higher than those on the contrary in the green zone.
Suggest that these results? For the authors, this shows that four blood biomarkers, which can measure the concentration by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, are sufficient in themselves to tell if a person who looks healthy actually has a higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease, cancer or any other disease within 5 years.
More importantly, it reveals the existence of previously unknown connections between distinct diseases yet.
However, the study has several limitations, the authors recognize.
And they emphasize that this is an observational study, which only highlight a correlation between the score of one or more biomarkers and mortality.
Moreover, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy can not detect all the biomarker, mass spectrometry, which may ultimately be more specific.
Finally, the two groups on which his study was northern Europeans, it is not known whether the same results would be obtained in other ethnic groups or populations with distinct ways of life.
But above all, what good to say to a person who looks healthy that his risk of dying within 5 years is actually quite high if you do not know exactly what pre disease come?.